Market Recaps: Thursday, March 26, 2026

Iran-Gulf tensions escalate: IRGC confirms ongoing attack on Israel (Day 26), Strait of Hormuz disruptions representing largest oil supply disruption on record
Oil surges: Brent near $105/barrel, Goldman Sachs projects $85/bbl average, J.P. Morgan sees $100/bbl Q2 Brent; continued disruption could push $110-$150 range
OECD warns conflict will derail global economic pickup and push inflation sharply higher, constraining Fed flexibility
EU Parliament advancing Turnberry Deal (US trade implementation) with 29-9 committee vote; full plenary today, eliminates EU tariffs on US industrial goods, S&P estimates +0.1% GDP positive impact

Sector rallying sharply on Middle East conflict sustained disruption concerns:

Exxon Mobil (XOM): Up +10% since March 10 ($148→$163)
Chevron (CVX): Up +10% ($186→$205)
OPEC+ April increase (+206K bpd) insufficient to offset 10M bpd Middle East cuts
UBS initiates steel coverage citing insulation from Iran war volatility

Sector momentum accelerating as conflict persists into Day 26:

Major contractors at/near all-time highs: Lockheed Martin (LMT) hit $676.70 (March 2), RTX at $212.16, Northrop Grumman (NOC) at $768.02
Israel conducted 600+ strikes on Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure; US deployed ~7,000 troops
AeroVironment (AVAV): Cited as parabolic drone market beneficiary alongside Kratos Defense (KTOS)
Kratos (KTOS): Awarded $49M NSWC contract for Oriole rocket motor systems
AAR Corp (AIR): Surged +11.1% to $119.72 on Q3 EPS growth +92% YoY, revenue +16% YoY, raised full-year sales guidance

Microsoft (MSFT) + Nvidia (NVDA): Announced nuclear energy lifecycle AI partnership; BofA reinstated MSFT at $500 PT (33% upside)
Micron (MU): Dropped -3.5% (5th consecutive loss) after Google unveiled TurboQuant algorithm reducing memory requirements 6x; broader memory sector pressured (Samsung, SK Hynix, WD)
Qualcomm (QCOM): Bernstein downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform, slashed PT to $140 from $175 (~20% cut), citing smartphone unit declines and Apple roll-off concerns; stock at $130.35

Paychex (PAYX): Adjusted EPS $1.71 (+15% YoY) vs $1.67 est, revenue $1.81B (+20% YoY) vs $1.78B est; Management Solutions surged +23% on Paycor acquisition; stock at $90.61 (RSI 39, below 50/200 SMA)

Notable FDA approvals and catalysts:

Corcept Therapeutics (CORT): FDA approved treatment for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer; surged +23.4% to $41.75, analyst target $65.40 (56% upside)
Denali Therapeutics (DNLI): FDA approved AVLAYAH for Hunter syndrome (MPS II)—first new treatment in nearly 20 years; first biologic using TransportVehicle platform to cross blood-brain barrier; stock +4.5% to $21.58, analyst target $32.93 (52% upside)
MeiraGTx (MGTX): FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation for AAV2-hAQP1 in radiation-induced xerostomia; revenue crushed $81.4M vs $7M est (+1068%) on Lilly/JV payments
Upstar Bio (UPB): Phase 2 VALIANT showed 56% reduction in asthma exacerbation rate (p<0.0003); stock +12%, analyst target $49.75 vs ~$9.47
Sarepta (SRPT): Phase 1/2 siRNA data (FSHD1, DM1) drove +14-25% surge

Equitable Holdings (EQH) + Corebridge Financial (CRBG): All-stock merger creating ~$22B combined entity (51%/49% split); targets $500M+ synergies by 2028, 10%+ EPS accretion by 2028; EQH +1.7% premarket
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD): Paramount vote scheduled April 23 ($31/share, $81B equity value); $7B termination fee protects WBD; DOJ review ongoing
Henkel acquiring Olaplex (OLPX): $1.4B deal (~$2.09/share, 57% premium)
Golar LNG (GLNG): Goldman Sachs engaged for strategic review; $4.59B LNG infrastructure company
JetBlue (JBLU): Retained advisers to evaluate potential sale; surged +16.6% to $4.89

KKR: BMO cut PT to $106 from $125 (15% downside), citing private credit default concerns; RSI 41.6 oversold
Morgan Stanley (MS): NYSE Arca approved spot Bitcoin ETF listing
General Motors (GM): Wolfe Research upgraded to Outperform, PT $96 (25% upside)
Robinhood (HOOD): Board approved $1.5B share repurchase program; stock down ~39% in 2026 before bounce
Amazon (AMZN): Acquired Fauna Robotics and "Sprout" 42-inch humanoid robot, pivoting from warehouse to consumer humanoids

Micron Technology (MU) - AI memory demand concerns from Google efficiency breakthrough
Qualcomm (QCOM) - Downgrade, smartphone unit headwinds
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - Q1 delivery numbers expected early April
Kratos Defense (KTOS) - $49M Navy contract, defense drone momentum
DraftKings (DKNG) - Prediction market competition, RSI oversold 28.93
On Holding (ONON) - CEO departure, margin concerns, -9.25% today
Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) - FDA approval catalyst, 23.4% surge, 56% analyst upside