Market Recaps: Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Iran Conflict Escalation: U.S. military planning potential strikes on Iranian energy targets; Trump issued Tuesday deadline to reopen Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil supply). U.S. strikes 50+ military targets on Kharg Island; Iran retaliation hits Persian Gulf oil infrastructure. Russia oil prices surge to 13-year high.
ECB Hawkishness: Policymaker Wunsch signals openness to April rate increase, additional hikes possible if crisis conditions persist. Hawkish ECB stance increases global tightening pressure, potentially limiting Fed flexibility.
US Services Inflation: March data shows heightened inflation in services sector, complicating Fed's path to rate cuts—potentially keeping rates higher for longer.

Bill Ackman/Universal Music Group: Pershing Square proposes €55.8B ($64.4B) acquisition at €30.40/share (78% premium) in cash + stock. Deal creates 'New UMG' listed on NYSE with US GAAP reporting, targeting year-end 2026 close. UMG shares surge 15-29% in Amsterdam. Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) benefits as sponsor vehicle.
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Acquires cancer biotech Tubulis for $5B, expanding oncology pipeline.

Broadcom (AVGO): Signs long-term agreement with Google to develop/supply custom TPUs and networking components for AI infrastructure through 2031. Grants Anthropic access to 3.5 gigawatts of next-gen TPU compute starting 2027—their largest compute commitment to date. CEO projects $100B+ FY2027 revenue. Company holds ~60% market share in custom AI accelerators.

CMS Rate Reversal: Finalized 2.48% net average increase for 2027 MA payments—a massive reversal from January proposal of 0.09%. Represents $13B+ in additional MA payments. After-hours: Humana +12%, UnitedHealth +11%, CVS Health +9%, Elevance Health +5%, Molina +7%, Centene +4%.

Lennar (LEN): Seaport Global downgrades Buy to Sell, slashing PT from $140 to $74 (47% reduction), citing housing activity slowdown amid weak job growth. Joins BTIG (Sell, PT $77), Evercore ISI (PT $91), Truist (PT $90), Barclays (Underweight, PT $85). Consensus across 19 brokers now Reduce with 8 Sells. Q1 EPS $0.88 vs $0.95 est, revenue $6.62B vs $6.90B est.
KB Home (KBH): Seaport Global downgrades Buy to Sell, PT cut from $65 to $43 (34% reduction). Analyst Zener cites rising concerns housing activity poised to slow further due to lower neutral job rate.

Pentagon selects Anduril Industries and Impulse Space for Golden Dome space-based interceptor prototypes. Lockheed Martin (LMT) +1.8% today ($142B cap) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) ($100B cap) developing competing interceptor concepts for multi-layered space shield.

Bel Fuse (BELFA): Q1 revenue $175.9M vs $171.7M est (+2.4%), appointed ex-Mercury Systems exec Tom Smelker to lead ADRS segment (~$369M). FY2025 +26% YoY revenue growth. Stock +8.9% since March 31 ($180→$196).
Twilio (TWLO): Jefferies upgrades to Buy, PT raised from $125 to $160 (28% increase). $19.9B cloud communications company trades at $133 with 20% upside to new target.
Robinhood (HOOD): Designated Treasury as broker/trustee for Trump Accounts children's savings program. Partnership provides millions of new account potential; HOOD +1.63%.
Viridian (VRDN): Craters 24% after Amgen's TEPEZZA Phase 3 shows stronger efficacy in thyroid eye disease market, threatening elegrobart competition.
Valaris (VAL): Extends DS-4 drillship contract with Petrobras, adding $447M to backlog, securing deepwater ops through 2030.

Broadcom (AVGO) - Google TPU deal, $100B+ FY27 guidance
Humana (HUM) - Medicare Advantage rate reversal catalyst
Lennar (LEN) - Housing slowdown intensifying, 4th consecutive earnings decline risk
Howard Hughes (HHH) - Pershing Square/UMG deal sponsor exposure
Gilead (GILD) - $5B Tubulis acquisition integration
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Golden Dome interceptor program winner
Twilio (TWLO) - 20% upside to Jefferies PT after upgrade