Dover EPS in-line as FY26 guidance falls short of estimates
Industrial conglomerate reports 5% organic growth, initiates $500M accelerated share repurchase program
Dover Corporation delivered in-line earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2025, though its fiscal 2026 guidance fell short of analyst expectations at the midpoint, prompting investor caution as shares slipped 0.6% in early trading.
The industrial conglomerate reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.51, matching consensus estimates and representing a 14% increase from the prior year. Revenue reached $2.1 billion, up 9% year-over-year with 5% organic growth, its highest level of 2025.
For fiscal 2026, Dover issued guidance of adjusted EPS between $10.45 and $10.65, representing growth of 9-11% from 2025. The midpoint of $10.55 trails the consensus estimate of $10.63. The company expects total revenue growth of 5-7% with organic growth of 3-5%.
Richard Tobin, Dover's chief executive, highlighted the quarter's "broad-based top line strength across the portfolio," noting that performance was driven by secular-growth markets and improving conditions in retail fueling and refrigerated door cases. Consolidated bookings of $2.14 billion provided evidence of sustained demand momentum, Tobin said.
The company bolstered its shareholder return strategy by initiating a $500 million accelerated share repurchase program. The ASR program delivered 2.33 million shares initially and is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2026. Outside the accelerated program, Dover repurchased 200,000 shares during 2025 at an average price of $203.50.
Segment performance demonstrated diversity across Dover's portfolio. Pumps & Process Solutions led revenue generation with $583.6 million, followed by Clean Energy & Fueling at $551.9 million. Imaging & Identification contributed $302.2 million, Climate & Sustainability Technologies generated $387.3 million, and Engineered Products produced $275.5 million.
Analysts had been anticipating adjusted EPS of $2.48-$2.51 ahead of the release, with revenue estimates between $2.07 billion and $2.09 billion. Heading into earnings, Dover maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with an average price target of approximately $218.
Individual analyst price targets issued in January reflected varied valuations, ranging from $195 to $268.80, with firms including Oppenheimer ($232), JP Morgan ($230), and UBS ($256) setting optimistic outlooks. RBC lifted its target to $199 on January 20, while Barclays maintained a $205 target earlier in the month.
Dover's stock has traded within a 52-week range of $141.82 to $219.83, reflecting broader volatility in the industrials sector throughout 2025. The company's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.57 suggests investors are pricing in moderate growth expectations relative to its industrial machinery peers.
Tobin expressed confidence in the company's trajectory, noting that acquisitions closed during 2025 are "performing above their deal models" and that "meaningful balance sheet flexibility" positions Dover to continue investing in long-term shareholder value. The company expects to carry restructuring benefits from previous optimization projects into 2026 to support margin conversion.