National Beverage shares rise 4% on shipment rebound despite quarterly miss
January volumes climb 7% amid winter storm disruptions as LaCroix maker posts stronger gross margins
National Beverage Corp. shares jumped 4.3% to $35.73 on Thursday after the LaCroix maker reported accelerating shipment growth that overshadowed a quarterly revenue shortfall and renewed investor confidence in a turnaround for the once-struggling sparkling water company.
The Fort Lauderdale-based company reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $0.44 per share for the period ended January 31, representing a 5% increase from the prior year and matching analyst expectations, according to a regulatory filing. Net sales totaled $265 million, modestly trailing the $271.1 million consensus estimate.
More significantly, gross margins expanded by 60 basis points year-over-year to 37.7%, signaling improved pricing power and cost management despite ongoing inflationary pressures. The company also delivered a surprising January shipment increase of 7% even as winter storm Fern disrupted logistics across the country.
"The third quarter met our expectations for the marketplace and our objective of balancing volume with product pricing and margins," a company spokesperson stated in the earnings release. "Initial shipments for our fourth fiscal quarter reflect continued volume improvements over the prior year."
The shipment rebound marks a reversal from the company's early-quarter volume softness and suggests LaCroix may be regaining momentum after years of declining market share to better-capitalized competitors like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, which have aggressively expanded their sparkling water portfolios.
Management highlighted innovation as a strategic priority, noting that new varieties including PineApple CocoNut and Strawberry Peach are "expanding distribution and building velocity." The company is positioning its products around consumer demand for "layers of delight" and "beverage with a purpose"—marketing concepts focused on multisensory experiences and health-conscious formulations.
Despite the positive shipment trends, analysts remain cautious. National Beverage carries a consensus "sell" rating with an average price target of $35, just above current trading levels, according to market data. The stock has declined 14.6% over the past 12 months, significantly underperforming the broader consumer staples sector.
The company acknowledged ongoing challenges, particularly tariff-related cost increases that may force additional price adjustments. "We will continue to monitor tariff-related cost increases and make necessary price adjustments to balance the effects on consumers with the amount absorbed by the company," the spokesperson said.
National Beverage's market capitalization stands at $3.23 billion, with shares trading at 17.7 times trailing earnings. The company's entrepreneurial operator model and strong balance sheet provide flexibility to navigate competitive pressures, but sustaining the volume acceleration will be critical to winning back investor confidence.
The fourth quarter will provide a clearer indication of whether the January shipment momentum can be sustained, particularly as the company faces tougher year-over-year comparisons and intensifying competition in the $5 billion sparkling water category. Management's ability to execute on innovation while protecting margins will determine whether the post-earnings rally marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or another false start for the company whose stock once traded above $100 in 2018.