Academy Sports falls 1.7% on Q4 miss despite raised guidance
Retailer raises full-year outlook by 10% and increases quarterly payout for fourth straight year
Academy Sports and Outdoors shares fell 1.7% in pre-market trading Tuesday after the sporting goods retailer reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed analyst expectations, even as management delivered an optimistic outlook for 2026 and increased its dividend for the fourth consecutive year.
The Texas-based retailer reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.97 for the quarter ended January 31, falling short of the $2.06 consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts. Revenue of $1.72 billion also missed expectations of $1.76 billion, according to Benzinga.
Despite the fourth-quarter shortfall, investors focused on Academy's raised guidance for fiscal 2026. The company now expects net sales between $6.18 billion and $6.36 billion, representing growth of 2% to 5%. More importantly, management forecast earnings per share of $5.65 to $6.15, representing roughly 10% growth over fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.78, according to the company's press release.
Chief Executive Officer Steve Lawrence characterized fiscal 2025 as an "inflection point" for the company, citing continued market share gains and a return to top-line growth. "We put foundational building blocks in place in 2025 to drive sales in 2026 and beyond," Lawrence said in the earnings announcement. "We are accelerating our digital transformation to build a true omni-channel experience."
The company also announced a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.15 per share, marking the fourth straight year of dividend growth. The dividend will be paid on April 10 to shareholders of record as of March 20.
Analysts maintained a mixed view on the stock heading into earnings. Telsey Advisory Group reiterated an Outperform rating with a $65 price target on March 11, while UBS maintained a Neutral rating but raised its target from $54 to $60 on March 10. Evercore ISI kept its In-Line rating, lifting its price target from $55 to $60 on February 24, according to Benzinga.
Overall, Academy sports 10 buy ratings and 10 hold ratings from analysts, with an average price target of approximately $59.89, according to MarketBeat. The stock closed Monday at $56.51, giving the company a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Carl Ford outlined several expected tailwinds for 2026, including new store growth, omni-channel expansion, increased tax refunds, international sporting events, and America's 250th anniversary celebrations. However, he acknowledged that the American consumer remains under financial pressure, which is expected to persist throughout the year.
Academy's performance reflects the broader challenges facing retailers in a still-constrained consumer spending environment, even as the sporting goods sector shows signs of resilience. The company's comparable sales declined 1.6% in the fourth quarter and 1.5% for the full year, though net sales still grew on a reported basis due to new store openings.
The shares were trading at $55.58 in pre-market action, down $0.93 from Monday's close. The stock has declined 6.3% over the past ten sessions heading into the earnings report, according to MarketBeat.
Investors will be watching closely for signs that Academy can execute on its omni-channel strategy and capture market share from larger competitors like Dick's Sporting Goods and Bass Pro Shops, particularly as consumers potentially increase spending on outdoor activities and sporting equipment heading into the spring and summer seasons.