Ionis Doubles Olezarsen Peak Sales Forecast to Over $2 Billion
Shares hold near 52-week highs as investors weigh blockbuster potential for its sHTG drug against a staggering 200% run-up over the last year.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals saw its shares hold steady in Tuesday trading, following the company's announcement that it is doubling the peak annual sales forecast for its flagship cardiovascular drug, olezarsen, to more than $2 billion.
The updated guidance, a significant leap from the previous estimate of over $1 billion, is fueled by outstanding Phase 3 trial results and a promising new indication for the drug in treating severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG), a condition characterized by dangerously high levels of triglycerides in the blood that affects millions of patients.
Shares of the Carlsbad, California-based biotech hovered around $80.30 in midday trading. While this represented a slight dip of about 1.5%, it comes on the heels of a monumental rally that has seen the stock price more than double from its 52-week low, pushing the company's market capitalization to approximately $13 billion. The stock remains near its 52-week high of $86.15, suggesting investors are consolidating gains while digesting the drug's long-term potential.
Expanding the Market
The dramatically increased forecast hinges on expanding olezarsen's use beyond its initial, more niche market of familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). The company reported solid preliminary 2025 U.S. net product sales of $105 million for the drug, to be marketed as Tryngolza, in this initial indication. While the signal from the trading community pointed to a potential revenue miss, broader market analysis shows Ionis has consistently raised its revenue guidance over the past year.
However, the focus for Wall Street has decisively shifted to the blockbuster potential of the sHTG indication. The confidence stems from what analysts have called “home run” data from the company's Phase 3 trials. This clinical success was further validated in December 2025 when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted Breakthrough Therapy designation to olezarsen for sHTG, a move designed to expedite the development and review of drugs for serious conditions.
"We are commercializing and developing olezarsen from a position of strength for the sHTG indication, which has the potential to be a multi-billion-dollar, market-leading medicine," the company stated in a press release outlining its 2026 strategic outlook.
Analyst Enthusiasm and Forward Outlook
Analysts have been quick to recognize the drug’s potential. Following the release of the strong clinical data in late 2025, Jefferies raised its peak sales estimate for the drug to $2.5 billion. Enthusiasm is strong, with the consensus analyst price target sitting at $90.49, implying further upside from the current trading level.
The market for sHTG treatments is substantial, offering a significant opportunity for Ionis to establish a new revenue driver. The company’s RNA-targeted therapeutic approach, which underpins olezarsen, is designed to inhibit the production of a key protein involved in triglyceride metabolism.
Investors will now be closely watching for the company's formal new drug application (NDA) submission to the FDA for the sHTG indication and the subsequent regulatory review. A successful launch into this larger patient population would be a transformative event for Ionis, solidifying its transition into a fully integrated, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company and validating its leadership in antisense technology.