Oil and Gold Spike After U.S. Ousts Venezuela's Maduro
Geopolitical shock ignites fears of oil supply disruptions and sends investors flocking to safe-haven assets, roiling global markets in evening trade.
Global markets were jolted by a significant geopolitical upheaval as reports emerged that the United States has ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The news triggered an immediate risk-off reaction in after-hours trading, with oil prices climbing on fears of supply disruptions from the major oil-producing nation and gold surging as investors sought safe-haven assets.
The event marks a dramatic escalation in the long-strained relationship between Washington and Caracas, introducing a fresh wave of uncertainty into the global energy and financial landscape. In the wake of the U.S. action, Venezuela's acting foreign minister, Yvan Gil Rodriguez, has reportedly called for cooperation with the U.S., signaling a potentially complex and volatile transition of power.
Crude oil prices reacted swiftly to the news, with Brent crude projected to climb towards $65 per barrel. The primary driver is concern that the political instability could further disrupt Venezuela's already hobbled oil production and exports. While the nation’s output has plummeted from its peak of over 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s, the sudden removal of its current supply from the market would add pressure to a tightly balanced global supply.
Meanwhile, gold experienced a dramatic ascent, with spot prices surging to nearly $4,370 per ounce in early Asian trading—a historic peak reflecting a classic flight to safety. The move underscores deep investor anxiety over the potential for broader regional instability and the unpredictable consequences of the regime change.
Venezuela's role in the global oil market has diminished significantly over the past two decades. Years of economic crisis, severe underinvestment, and crippling U.S. sanctions have degraded its energy infrastructure, with production falling to just 956,000 barrels per day as of October 2025, according to CEIC data. This is a stark contrast to its former status as a founding member of OPEC and a leading global supplier.
Analysts note that the future of Venezuela's oil sector now hinges almost entirely on Washington's next moves. The key determinant for the nation's production outlook will be U.S. sanctions policy, according to recent analysis by Goldman Sachs. Any path to restoring the country's oil output to its former levels would require a significant reversal of sanctions and massive foreign investment, a process that would likely take years.
For now, the market is grappling with the immediate risks. The specter of higher energy costs presents a renewed inflationary threat to the U.S. and other major economies. Traders will be closely watching for the response from other OPEC+ members, who may need to adjust their production quotas to stabilize the market, as well as any signs of escalating military tensions in the Caribbean.