Neurocrine tops revenue estimates on INGREZZA strength
Biotech company forecasts 7-11% growth for flagship drug amid analyst concerns over competition
Neurocrine Biosciences reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue driven by its flagship movement disorder treatment INGREZZA, though the biotechnology company's earnings disappointed some investors amid heavy investment in research and development.
The San Diego-based company reported quarterly revenue of $805.5 million, exceeding consensus estimates of $802.45 million. Total net product sales reached $798.3 million, representing 29% year-over-year growth, while full-year 2025 net product sales climbed to $2.83 billion.
"INGREZZA continues to be the primary driver of Neurocrine Biosciences' revenue, accounting for substantially all net product sales," according to market analysis of the company's performance. The company provided 2026 guidance for INGREZZA of $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion, representing 7-11% growth from the prior year.
Neurocrine reported earnings per share of $1.88 for the quarter, which fell short of some analyst estimates that ranged from $2.07 to $2.36. The shortfall was attributed to increased research and development spending as the company invests in its pipeline expansion.
Shares of Neurocrine declined following the earnings announcement, dropping to $135.35 in after-hours trading on February 11 from $139.11 earlier in the session. The stock has traded between $84.23 and $160.18 over the past 52 weeks.
Analyst reactions to the results were mixed, reflecting differing views on the company's growth trajectory amid intensifying competition. Morgan Stanley downgraded Neurocrine to "Equal Weight" over concerns about increasing competition for INGREZZA, potential price pressure from Medicare negotiations, and what the firm characterized as a lack of significant clinical catalysts in 2026.
UBS also expressed caution, lowering its peak sales estimate for Crenessity from $2.5 billion to $1.7 billion, citing potential competitive impacts in the market for congenital adrenal hyperplasia treatments. Crenessity, which launched in the United States in 2024, has shown sequential growth throughout 2025, though analysts note that revenue ramp-up has been measured as clinicians gain real-world experience with the drug and reimbursement processes take time to establish.
Despite the headwinds, some analysts maintained an optimistic outlook. Canaccord Genuity Group and Stifel Nicolaus both increased their price targets while keeping "buy" ratings. UBS, despite lowering its peak sales estimate for Crenessity, maintained a "buy" rating on the stock.
The consensus rating among 19 analysts remains "buy," with a mean price target of $179.59, suggesting potential upside of roughly 30% from current levels. More than half of analysts covering the stock rate it a "strong buy."
Neurocrine's strong balance sheet provides financial flexibility as it navigates competitive pressures. The company reported holding $2.54 billion in cash at the end of the quarter, positioning it to continue pipeline investments while weathering potential pricing pressures.
The company operates in a competitive biopharmaceutical landscape, with INGREZZA facing challenges from generic competition and potential new entrants in the tardive dyskinesia market. Medicare drug price negotiations, a centerpiece of the Inflation Reduction Act, also pose risks to pricing power for specialty pharmaceuticals.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on Neurocrine's ability to execute its Crenessity launch and progress on other pipeline candidates that could diversify revenue beyond INGREZZA. The company's guidance for modest INGREZZA growth in 2026 suggests a transition period as competition intensifies, making successful execution on new product launches increasingly critical for sustaining growth momentum.