Ocular Therapeutix cash runway fuels $24.25 target amid AXPAXLI trial
Revenue declines to $13.3M but $737.1M balance supports operations through 2028
Ocular Therapeutix delivered mixed fourth-quarter results on Thursday, missing revenue expectations while beating on earnings, though analysts remain focused on the company's substantial cash position and a pivotal clinical trial readout expected later this month.
The biopharmaceutical company reported quarterly revenue of $13.3 million, down 22.4 percent from the prior year and missing analyst estimates of $14.6 million. Full-year revenue declined 18.5 percent to $52 million. However, the company narrowed its loss per share to $0.29, beating expectations of a $0.35 loss.
More significantly, Ocular Therapeutix ended the year with a cash balance of $737.1 million, bolstered by a September equity offering that raised gross proceeds of approximately $475 million. The company said this capital is sufficient to support planned operations through 2028, providing a comfortable runway as it advances its pipeline.
"This cash balance is expected to support planned expenses, debt service obligations, and capital expenditure requirements into 2028," the company stated in its earnings release.
The primary catalyst driving investor attention is the SOL-1 Phase 3 superiority trial for AXPAXLI, the company's investigational treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration. Topline data from the trial are scheduled to be presented at the 49th Macula Society Annual Meeting between February 25 and 28, 2026.
The SOL-1 trial, conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment agreement with the FDA, has the potential to support the first label with a superiority claim over a single dose of aflibercept (2 mg) for any wet AMD product. All subjects have completed their 52-week visits, with results currently masked pending the conference presentation.
Should results prove positive, Ocular Therapeutix plans to submit a New Drug Application using the 505(b)(2) pathway, which could shorten the FDA review timeline by up to two months.
Analysts remain broadly bullish on the stock, with an average target price of $24.25—nearly triple the current trading level of approximately $8.55. According to market data, all 12 covering analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, with no hold or sell recommendations. Institutional ownership stands at 90.4 percent, signaling strong conviction from sophisticated investors.
The company is currently in a quiet period ahead of the SOL-1 data readout and will not host a conference call to discuss quarterly results. Management indicated it plans to resume quarterly earnings calls for the first quarter of 2026.
Beyond the immediate AXPAXLI catalyst, Ocular Therapeutix reported progress on other pipeline programs. The SOL-R Phase 3 non-inferiority trial completed randomization of 631 subjects in December 2025, accelerating the timeline for topline results to the first quarter of 2027. Additionally, the HELIOS-3 Phase 3 trial in diabetic retinopathy is underway and could support a broader label in diabetic retinal disease.
Research and development expenses increased significantly during the quarter, reaching $50.8 million in Q4 2025, up from $41.0 million in the prior-year quarter. Full-year R&D spending climbed to $197.1 million, reflecting the company's investment in advancing its clinical programs.
With shares trading near the midpoint of their 52-week range of $5.79 to $16.44, the company's $1.8 billion market capitalization reflects investor anticipation for the upcoming trial results. The stock trades at approximately 32.5 times trailing sales, a premium valuation that assumes successful commercial execution of AXPAXLI.
The February data readout represents a critical inflection point for the company. Wet AMD affects approximately 11 million people in the United States alone, and the current standard of care requires frequent injections that create substantial patient burden. AXPAXLI's potential for extended durability and superior efficacy could meaningfully disrupt this large market if clinical results support the thesis.