Medline's $50B IPO Signals Bull Market for New Listings
The record offering for 2025 is being guided to the top of its range, confirming a decisive revival in investor appetite for large-scale debuts.
A resurgent market for initial public offerings is poised for its biggest test yet, as medical supply giant Medline is guiding its landmark IPO towards the upper end of its price range. The deal is on track to raise over $5 billion and command a valuation exceeding $50 billion, making it the largest US listing of 2025 and a powerful indicator of renewed investor confidence.
The strong demand for Medline, a sprawling, privately-held manufacturer and distributor of medical supplies, provides the clearest evidence yet that the IPO window has fully reopened for large, mature companies. The successful offering would cap a comeback year for the US new-issue market, which has steadily gained momentum after a prolonged drought.
Investor sentiment has improved dramatically in the latter half of the year, fueled by moderating inflation and growing conviction that interest rate hikes are firmly in the past. This has created a fertile environment for companies to go public, a stark contrast to the barren landscape of the previous two years. According to a recent report from PwC on capital markets, traditional IPOs have already raised over $33 billion in 2025, making it the most active year since the boom of 2021.
The market's renewed vigor has been demonstrated by a string of successful listings. More than 90% of large IPOs in the third quarter priced at or above their initial ranges, delivering a median first-day trading gain of 15%, according to data from EY. The performance of recent high-profile debuts like AI infrastructure firm CoreWeave and fintech company Circle Internet Group, both of which saw strong post-IPO gains, has further bolstered the confidence of both issuers and investors.
Bankers are watching the Medline offering as a critical bellwether. A strong debut could unlock a wave of offerings from a backlog of over 800 so-called "unicorns"—private companies valued at over $1 billion—that have been waiting for favorable market conditions. "Medline is the exam question that the entire market has to answer," noted one senior investment banker. "Its success would validate the recovery and give dozens of boards the confidence to pull the trigger in early 2026."
The deal's significance extends beyond the IPO market, reflecting a broader return of risk appetite. Committing billions of dollars to a new listing signals that institutional investors are increasingly comfortable deploying large amounts of capital into growth-oriented assets, a positive sign for the health of the wider equity market.
As reported by Bloomberg on Monday, Medline's pricing guidance suggests the final valuation could settle comfortably in the $50 to $55 billion range. Should the stock perform well in its initial trading days, it would cement 2025 as the year the IPO market roared back to life, setting the stage for a busy and potentially record-breaking 2026.