Retailers Brace for Holiday Rush With Hiring at 15-Year Low
Projections for a record $1 trillion in holiday sales clash with conservative staffing, signaling concerns over consumer resilience and profit margins.
The U.S. retail sector is heading into its crucial holiday season with a stark contradiction: while forecasting record-breaking consumer spending that could top $1 trillion for the first time, retailers are planning the lowest level of seasonal hiring in more than a decade.
This divergence signals a deep-seated caution among retailers, who appear to be prioritizing operational efficiency and margin protection over aggressive expansion in the face of economic uncertainty. The National Retail Federation (NRF) announced it expects holiday sales in November and December to grow between 3.7% and 4.2%, reaching between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.
Despite this bullish sales forecast, the industry’s hiring plans tell a different story. The NRF projects retailers will add between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, a significant pullback from the 442,000 hired in 2024 and potentially the lowest number since the late 2000s. The tempered hiring strategy comes even as consumers themselves plan to spend robustly, with the NRF survey indicating an average spend of $890.49 per person—the second-highest figure in the survey's 23-year history.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the announcement. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season.”
However, the industry’s actions reflect a more guarded approach. The conservative staffing levels suggest retailers are bracing for a value-conscious shopper and are navigating persistent inflation and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation,” noted Mark Mathews, NRF's chief economist. He added that retailers have been trying to “hold the line on prices,” a move that puts direct pressure on profitability.
This strategic caution is echoed by other market analyses. A recent holiday outlook from PwC highlighted that consumers are increasingly prioritizing value and experiences, while a Deloitte survey pointed to a potential reduction in average spending due to concerns over the cost of living.
The slowdown in hiring may also reflect operational shifts within the industry. Some retailers may have pulled hiring forward into October to support earlier promotional events. Furthermore, sustained investment in e-commerce, in-store technology, and automation may be enabling companies to handle increased sales volume with a leaner workforce.
Looming over the fourth-quarter outlook are potential economic headwinds, including the impact of a federal government shutdown, which the NRF noted was a risk. “Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, eroding consumer demand,” the organization warned.
Ultimately, the 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be a critical test for the retail sector. While the headline sales numbers are poised for a new record, the underlying story is one of strategic restraint. Retailers are betting they can meet robust demand with fewer hands on deck, a high-stakes gamble that will determine the sector’s profitability and momentum heading into the new year.