Gold miners surge as bullion breaches $5,000 record
Safe-haven demand driven by political turmoil and weaker dollar boosts mining sector
Gold mining shares rallied on Monday as bullion topped $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history, with the precious metal reaching an intraday high near $5,100. The milestone surge propelled major producers higher, with Newmont climbing 4.4% and Barrick Gold's U.S.-listed shares gaining 3.8% in premarket trading.
The record rally extends gold's remarkable ascent this year, with the metal up 17% in January alone and having gained 64% in 2025 — its strongest annual performance since 1979. Intraday prices touched $5,089 before settling slightly lower, representing a nearly 90% increase since Donald Trump's inauguration.
Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven amid what analysts have termed "Trump turmoil," including fears of another U.S. government shutdown, threatened 100% tariffs on Canada, and escalating diplomatic tensions with Europe over Greenland. Growing concerns that the Trump administration intends to weaken the U.S. dollar have further accelerated the move, particularly as the Federal Reserve has been monitoring the dollar-yen exchange rate amid suggestions the currency is overvalued.
Steve Miller, an investment strategy adviser at GSFM with four decades of market experience, said he has not witnessed a phenomenon of this magnitude in his career. He drew parallels to the second oil shock and inflation scare of the late 1970s and early 1980s, noting that gold's potential to insulate portfolios from turmoil in other asset classes continues to drive demand.
The rising gold price environment is translating into improved profitability across the mining sector, with higher revenues, expanding margins, and stronger cash flows. Other gold producers joined the rally, including Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold, and Sibanye Stillwater, which gained between 2% and 4.3%. Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold also saw their U.S.-listed shares each climb 4%.
Analysts have responded by upgrading their outlook on the sector. Newmont maintains a "Buy" consensus rating, with Bank of America raising its price target to $129 from $114 in January while maintaining a buy rating. Raymond James increased its target to $130 from $111, and TD Cowen set a target of $120. Barrick Gold carries a "Strong Buy" consensus, with RBC adjusting its price target to $51 from $40 in December and UBS maintaining a buy rating with a $47 target.
Expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, combined with robust central bank buying and investor flows into gold-backed ETFs, are providing additional structural support for the sector. The low-interest-rate environment and macroeconomic uncertainty traditionally favor non-yielding assets like gold, positioning miners for potentially sustained outperformance if current conditions persist.