Airline stocks face test as TSA PreCheck suspension begins
DHS shutdown halts expedited security programs, raising concerns about business travel demand
The suspension of TSA PreCheck and Global Entry programs amid a Department of Homeland Security funding dispute has raised fresh concerns for airline stocks, just as carriers grapple with a winter storm disrupting thousands of flights across the northeastern United States.
The expedited security programs, which allow millions of enrolled travelers to bypass longer security lines, were suspended as of 6 a.m. Eastern time Sunday, according to DHS officials. The move comes as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem prioritized general security screening lanes during the partial government shutdown that began February 14.
The disruption arrives at a delicate moment for major carriers. Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and American Airlines (AAL) all closed higher in Friday trading—Delta up 3%, United adding 2.7%, and American gaining 1.8%—but those gains came before markets absorbed the implications of the suspended security programs. The stocks will face their first test when markets open Monday.
Business travelers, who generate disproportionately higher revenue for airlines through premium fares and last-minute bookings, are expected to feel the impact most acutely. TSA PreCheck participants typically wait less than 10 minutes in security lines, according to NerdWallet data. Without expedited screening, these travelers must join standard security queues, creating the potential for missed flights and reduced productivity.
"These programs reduce airport lines and ease the burden on unpaid DHS staff," said Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, according to CBS News. The suspension means approximately 88,000 fewer daily trips across the U.S., based on patterns observed during previous government shutdowns, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Historical precedents suggest significant financial costs for carriers. During a 43-day shutdown in late 2025, the travel industry suffered an estimated $6.1 billion in economic losses. Delta alone reported approximately $200 million in losses during that period, attributed to reduced flights, softer demand, and increased rebooking costs. Bookings declined 5-10% during the shutdown, the company disclosed.
The TSA PreCheck suspension compounds existing operational pressures. A powerful winter storm, described as a "bomb cyclone," has already forced airlines to preemptively cancel more than 2,200 flights across major northeastern hubs including New York's LaGuardia, John F. Kennedy, and Newark airports. Airlines had already cancelled over 3,000 flights in advance of the storm.
Delta has faced particularly severe weather impacts this season. The carrier navigated "Winter Storm Fern" in late January, which caused more than 1,000 cancellations at its Atlanta hub alone and projected a pretax profit hit of approximately $66.7 million. For Sunday's storm, Delta cancelled 203 flights with an additional 440 cancellations expected for Monday at New York and Boston airports.
American Airlines, which operates 1,013 aircraft through its network of domestic and international hubs, has also signaled weather-related pain. The company anticipated a first-quarter adjusted loss between 10 cents and 50 cents per share, with revenue impacts of $150 million to $200 million from earlier severe weather in January.
The U.S. Travel Association estimates that government shutdowns cost the economy $1 billion each week. Beyond direct airline revenue losses, the broader travel ecosystem—including hotels, restaurants, and ground transportation—faces ripple effects from reduced passenger volumes. A survey conducted by the association found that 60% of Americans would cancel or avoid air travel during a shutdown, with 86% agreeing such disruptions inconvenience air travelers.
The suspension of TSA PreCheck and Global Entry represents a departure from previous government shutdowns, when these fee-funded programs continued operating. DHS officials characterized the decision as an emergency measure to reallocate staff and maintain basic security operations with reduced personnel. The programs, which serve millions of travelers who pay enrollment fees ranging from $78 for five-year PreCheck memberships to $100 for five-year Global Entry access, typically operate independently of congressional appropriations.
Airlines for America, the industry trade group representing major carriers, has previously estimated that flight reduction directives reaching 10% at affected airports create a daily economic impact of $285 million to $580 million for the U.S. economy, not including the indirect costs of passenger time value and lost productivity.
For now, the duration of the DHS partial shutdown remains uncertain, leaving airlines and investors in a holding pattern. The partial funding lapse affects specific DHS agencies amid a congressional dispute over immigration enforcement spending. Until funding is restored, the suspended expedited security programs represent a new variable in the already complex equation of airline profitability.