McCormick Sinks as Weak 2026 Profit Outlook Alarms Investors
Shares fall after the spice maker's Q4 earnings per share miss estimates and its full-year forecast falls short of Wall Street expectations.
Shares of McCormick & Company (MKC) fell in trading on Tuesday after the global spice and flavorings giant reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed analyst expectations and issued a disappointing profit forecast for fiscal year 2026.
The Hunt Valley, Maryland-based company saw its stock price decline by more than 4% as investors reacted to signs of pressure on profitability, overshadowing a slight beat on quarterly revenue. The results signal potential headwinds for the consumer staples bellwether as it navigates a complex economic environment.
For the quarter ending November 30, 2025, McCormick posted adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share. This figure fell short of the consensus analyst estimate, which, according to reports from Zacks Equity Research, was pegged between $0.87 and $0.88 per share. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.85 billion, narrowly exceeding the $1.84 billion anticipated by Wall Street. While this represented a nearly 3% increase year-over-year, the top-line growth was not enough to satisfy market expectations for a stronger bottom line.
The primary driver of the negative sentiment was the company's forward-looking guidance. McCormick management projected that adjusted earnings for fiscal 2026 would land in a range of $3.05 to $3.13 per share. This forecast was significantly below the consensus estimate of $3.21 compiled by FactSet, as noted by MarketScreener, signaling to investors that margin pressures may persist.
In its announcement, the company projected net sales to grow between 13% and 17% in 2026, a figure that includes the impact of the recent McCormick de Mexico acquisition. While robust on the surface, investors appeared more focused on the firm's ability to translate that higher revenue into profit growth.
The market's reaction underscores a broader anxiety about corporate profitability in the face of fluctuating input costs and shifting consumer behavior. Although many companies in the consumer goods sector have successfully passed on higher prices over the past two years, investors are now scrutinizing whether those gains can be sustained and converted into improved margins.
Despite the sell-off, Wall Street has not entirely soured on the company's long-term prospects. The consensus analyst target price for MKC stock remains at $77.00, suggesting significant potential upside from its current trading level. The majority of analysts covering the stock maintain a 'Hold' or 'Buy' rating, indicating a belief that the company's strong brand portfolio and global reach provide a solid foundation for future growth. Investors will be closely watching for evidence of gross margin recovery and the successful integration of its acquisitions in the upcoming quarters to validate this outlook.