CME Group hits 52-week high after fourth consecutive record year
Derivatives giant delivers $6.5bn annual revenue as CEO calls 2025 'best year in our history'
CME Group shares surged to a 52-week high on Wednesday after the derivatives marketplace reported a fourth consecutive year of record financial performance, driven by surging trading volumes and strong client demand for risk management products.
The Chicago-based exchange operator saw its stock climb to $293.78, extending its rally to 0.8% on the day and bringing year-to-date gains to more than 8%. The company now boasts a market capitalization of approximately $104.5 billion.
CME reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.77, beating analyst estimates of $2.63. Revenue climbed 7.8% to $1.65 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $1.53 billion.
For the full year 2025, the company delivered record annual revenue of $6.5 billion, up 6% from the prior year. Average daily volume reached a record 28.1 million contracts, driven by what Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy described as a "risk-always-on environment."
"Last year, CME Group delivered the best year in our history and our fourth consecutive year of record revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share," Duffy said in the earnings announcement.
The fourth quarter alone achieved the second-highest quarterly revenue in the company's history, with average daily volume of 27.4 million contracts marking the highest Q4 volume on record. Non-U.S. trading showed particular strength, with volume rising 9% compared with the same period in 2024, led by an 18% jump in Asia and 6% growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Commodities trading grew 12% for the full year, while financials increased 5%, reflecting broad-based demand across asset classes. The company's market data revenue reached a record $803 million, up 13% year-over-year.
Despite the strong performance, analysts maintain a tempered outlook. The consensus price target among 13 analysts stands at $289.71, essentially flat with current trading levels. Seven analysts rate the stock a buy, four recommend hold, and two suggest sell.
UBS recently cut its 2026 volume growth forecast to 5%, citing softer futures volumes and slightly weaker pricing trends. The firm lowered fourth-quarter EPS estimates ahead of the results, reflecting concerns about sustaining the growth trajectory.
CME returned approximately $3.9 billion to shareholders through dividends during 2025, bringing total distributions since early 2012 to nearly $30 billion. The company currently pays an annual dividend of $4.90 per share, yielding 1.7%.
Looking ahead, Duffy emphasized strategic initiatives including expanding U.S. Treasury clearing, 24/7 cryptocurrency trading, and prediction markets. The company recently implemented pricing changes for clients and raised margin requirements on Comex silver and gold futures, reflecting increased market volatility.
CME's derivatives clearing operations provided $80 billion in average daily margin efficiencies to market users during the fourth quarter, a metric the company aims to increase as part of its growth strategy.
With shares trading at 28 times trailing earnings and a price-to-book ratio of 3.69, some analysts warn that valuation concerns could limit further upside despite the strong operational performance. The stock's beta of 0.28 indicates relatively low volatility compared with the broader market.