TMC shares tumble on deeper-than-expected Q4 loss
Deep-sea mining developer posts $40.4M quarterly loss as warrant charges weigh on results
TMC the metals company shares fell sharply on Friday after the deep-sea mining developer reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, burdened by a substantial warrant charge and with no clear path to revenue as it awaits regulatory approval.
The company reported a net loss of $40.4 million, or $0.08 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, missing analyst expectations for a loss of $0.06 to $0.065 per share. The results, released after market close, included a non-recurring charge of $38 million related to the fair value of warrants issued under revised sponsorship agreements with Nauru and Tonga.
The stock, which closed at $4.61 on Thursday, is now trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with technical indicators flashing warning signals across all timeframes. The shares have declined 26.2% over the past 10 trading days, reflecting growing investor skepticism about the company's path to commercial operations.
The technical picture has deteriorated significantly, with the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index at 31.4, approaching oversold territory but suggesting continued downward momentum. Moving averages across all periods—from 5-day to 200-day—consistently signal "sell," with long-term averages remaining above short-term averages, a classic bearish pattern indicating a falling trend.
TMC ended 2025 with $117.6 million in cash and total liquidity of $162 million, including undrawn credit facilities. The company said it expects liquidity of approximately $154 million by the end of March 2026, and believes its current resources will be sufficient to cover working capital and capital expenditure commitments for at least the next twelve months.
However, the company remains pre-commercial, with no revenue generated as it awaits a commercial recovery permit. TMC is working to finalize an updated commercial agreement with Allseas, its partner in the NORI polymetallic nodule project in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean.
The company also stated it is "actively exploring options for domestic processing and refining," including capital-light tolled processing arrangements, and is seeking U.S. government support for a domestic processing hub. These efforts reflect the complex regulatory and operational challenges facing deep-sea mining, an industry that remains in its infancy despite growing demand for battery metals.
For the full year 2025, TMC reported a net loss of $319.8 million, highlighting the substantial costs associated with developing deep-sea mining technology and navigating international regulatory frameworks.
The options market had anticipated significant volatility around the earnings release, with implied moves of approximately 10% in either direction. The actual decline has extended what was already a challenging month for the stock, which is now down sharply from its 52-week high of $11.35.
TMC expects to secure its commercial recovery permit within the next year, a critical milestone that would allow it to begin collecting polymetallic nodules containing nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—key metals for electric vehicle batteries. Until then, the company will continue burning cash as it advances its environmental impact assessments and engages with international regulatory bodies.
Investors are watching for updates on the Allseas partnership and any progress on U.S. government support, which could provide a significant boost to the company's domestic processing ambitions. The conference call, scheduled for Friday morning, will likely focus on management's timeline for commercial operations and strategies for extending the company's cash runway beyond the next twelve months.