US PC Shipments Fall Again, Testing Hopes for an AI-Driven Rebound
A second consecutive quarterly decline in US shipments signals persistent market weakness ahead of an anticipated 2025 enterprise refresh cycle.
The U.S. personal computer market has contracted for a second straight quarter, casting a shadow over the industry's recovery narrative just as manufacturers ramp up for a widely anticipated upgrade cycle driven by artificial intelligence.
U.S. PC shipments declined 1% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, according to a report from research firm Omdia. The modest but persistent decline points to sustained demand headwinds and cautious spending from both consumers and businesses, posing a challenge for major manufacturers like Dell Technologies Inc. and HP Inc.
The slowdown comes at a critical juncture for the industry, which is banking on two major catalysts to spur growth in 2025: the mass adoption of AI-capable PCs and the looming end of support for Microsoft's Windows 10. The latter is expected to force a wave of hardware upgrades across the corporate world. Research firm IDC projects the global PC market will grow around 4% in 2025, largely driven by this commercial refresh.
However, the latest shipment data suggests this recovery has yet to take hold. The back-to-back quarterly declines indicate that sluggish consumer appetite and deferred enterprise investment, which plagued the market following the pandemic-era boom, have not fully dissipated.
Market players are positioned differently to navigate the current environment. Dell, which derives a significant portion of its revenue from enterprise clients, appears better insulated. The company recently posted a 10.8% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue and saw its earnings grow by over 44%. With a strong foothold in the commercial segment, Dell is a prime candidate to benefit from the impending Windows 10 upgrade cycle.
Conversely, HP, with its substantial exposure to the consumer and printing markets, reported a 10.4% decline in quarterly earnings. While the company is also pushing into the AI PC space, its near-term performance remains more tethered to discretionary consumer spending, which has been inconsistent.
The industry's great hope remains the "AI PC," a new category of machines equipped with specialized processors to run artificial intelligence tasks locally. Analysts at Gartner forecast that these devices will represent 31% of the worldwide PC market by the end of 2025. Manufacturers are betting that these new capabilities will be compelling enough to shorten the replacement cycle and drive new sales.
Still, the path to recovery is not without obstacles. Lingering economic uncertainty could continue to weigh on budgets, and potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could introduce price pressures, potentially slowing the adoption of next-generation devices.
For now, the PC market remains in a state of anticipation. While the promise of an AI- and enterprise-led rebound in 2025 is strong, the current softness in U.S. shipments serves as a stark reminder of the fragile demand landscape the industry must first navigate.