Impinj Shares Slip as Preliminary Revenue Falls Just Shy of Estimates
The RAIN RFID leader's stock dipped despite forecasting stronger profitability, highlighting investor sensitivity to top-line growth for the high-flying tech name.
Shares of Impinj (NASDAQ: PI) fell in trading on Tuesday after the RAIN RFID solutions provider announced preliminary fourth-quarter revenue that narrowly missed Wall Street expectations, sparking concern among investors in the high-growth technology company.
The stock traded down approximately 1.9%, with shares changing hands around $199.54. The dip came after the company disclosed preliminary revenue of about $93.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. While this figure was at the high end of the company’s own guidance, it fell just 0.6% short of the consensus analyst estimate of $93.6 million.
In a sign of operational efficiency, Impinj noted that its adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is expected to land above the midpoint of its previously issued guidance range of $15.4 million to $16.9 million. However, the market on Tuesday appeared more focused on the top-line miss, a common theme for growth stocks that trade at high valuations.
With a forward price-to-earnings ratio north of 80, Impinj is priced for significant growth. Any perceived slowdown in revenue can lead to an outsized stock reaction, as investors recalibrate their ambitious forecasts. The company, a key player in the Internet of Things (IoT) landscape, provides the underlying technology that allows businesses to track inventory and assets with unparalleled precision.
This slight revenue miss comes amid a backdrop of powerful secular trends that favor Impinj's technology. The global RFID market is projected to reach $15.6 billion in 2025, according to research from IDTechEx, with the UHF (RAIN RFID) segment showing accelerating growth. This expansion is driven by widening adoption in retail and logistics.
Major retailers like Walmart continue to expand mandates for suppliers to tag a growing range of general merchandise, creating a significant volume driver for Impinj's tags and reader systems. Beyond retail apparel, the technology is making critical inroads into other sectors. The food and beverage industry, for instance, is turning to RAIN RFID to comply with new regulations like the FDA's Food Traceability Rule (FSMA 204), which demands enhanced tracking of fresh food products.
Furthermore, the long-term outlook is being shaped by advancements that could bring the technology directly to consumers. Innovations in smartphone technology are paving the way for integrated RAIN RFID readers, which could transform in-store experiences and inventory management by enabling staff and shoppers to interact with products in real-time.
Investors and analysts will now be keenly awaiting Impinj’s full financial results and, more importantly, its first-quarter 2026 outlook. The company is scheduled to report on February 5, 2026, as stated in its preliminary announcement filing. The upcoming guidance will be critical in determining whether Tuesday's revenue hiccup was a momentary blip or a sign of a more moderated growth trajectory ahead.