Circle surges 7% on Clear Street upgrade citing five USDC growth catalysts
Analyst raises price target to $136 as stablecoin adoption accelerates amid tokenized funds and AI convergence
Circle Internet Group shares surged 7.3% on Monday after Clear Street upgraded the stablecoin issuer to Buy from Hold, citing accelerating adoption of its USDC token across multiple emerging use cases from tokenized funds to artificial intelligence applications.
The firm raised its price target to $136 from $92, representing 48% upside from current levels around $123.80. Circle's market capitalization stands at approximately $30.6 billion.
Clear Street identified five catalysts expected to drive USDC's market capitalization and adoption: a maturing tokenized fund ecosystem where USDC serves as a settlement layer; decentralized finance (DeFi) prediction markets driving on-platform balances; geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; the convergence of agentic AI with programmable stablecoins; and potential stablecoin legislation in the United States.
"We have increased our estimates and introduced a fiscal 2028 forecast due to a recent reversal and increase in USDC's market cap over the past six weeks," Clear Street analysts wrote in their research note. "We see opportunities for upward earnings revisions for fiscal 2026 and 2027."
The new $136 price target is based on 30 times EV/EBITDA on a fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $1.132 billion, combined with $2.3 billion of net cash.
USDC's momentum has been building steadily. The stablecoin's circulating supply reached a record $79 billion in early March, according to market data, representing an 8% increase in one month and 72% year-over-year growth. USDC has also surpassed Tether's USDT in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, reaching approximately $2.2 trillion compared to USDT's $1.3 trillion.
The stock's rally coincides with broader strength in cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin surged past $74,000 on Monday, marking its highest trading level since February and its eighth consecutive session of gains. The global cryptocurrency market valuation increased 3.3% to $2.6 trillion.
Circle shares have experienced dramatic volatility. After peaking at $264 in June 2025, the stock plummeted approximately 81% to around $50 in February 2026 before rebounding more than 100% to current levels. Despite the recovery, shares remain 56% below their all-time high.
Other Wall Street firms have also expressed bullish sentiment. Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating, noting strong stablecoin adoption trends and USDC supply reaching an all-time high of $78 billion. Mizuho raised its price target to $120, pointing to USDC's volume share surpassing USDT for the first time since 2018.
Needham took a more cautious approach, adjusting its price target to $130 from $190 due to anticipated lower interest rates and challenges from cryptocurrency declines affecting USDC supply growth. William Blair expressed optimism about Circle's long-term prospects, considering the stock attractive despite market fluctuations.
Analyst consensus data shows a mixed outlook: 11 analysts rate the stock Hold, nine rate it Buy or Strong Buy, and one recommends Sell. The average price target among analysts is $125.91, just above current trading levels.
Circle's growth comes amid favorable regulatory developments. The GENIUS Act, passed by the Senate in 2025, established a federal framework for payment stablecoins, strengthening USDC's position as a compliant digital asset. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency operationalized this framework in 2026.
The company is also expanding its infrastructure. Circle plans the mainnet launch of its Arc platform in 2026 for institutional-grade blockchain settlements using USDC, positioning itself to capture growing institutional demand for tokenized assets.
Despite today's rally, technical indicators suggest the stock may be overbought. The relative strength index (RSI) indicates elevated levels, and InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis suggests the stock is currently overvalued, though Clear Street's new fiscal 2028 forecasts imply significant earnings upside if USDC adoption continues accelerating.